The Illusion of “The End of History?”: Unraveling Fukuyama’s Miscalculations

By Nick Deiuliis

Today the world is trembling with international strife. Russia continuing its brutal grind in Ukraine, Iran funding terror and disrupting Mideast shipping, Israel facing down dual terror threats of Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and the Golan, Venezuela massing along its border with Guyana to invade for oil, North Korea opening another nuclear reactor and firing ballistic missiles, and China signaling to everyone that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent.

The geopolitical gameboard is blinking red, with a new Axis of China-Russia-Iran plotting and building hegemony to counter and ultimately destroy the West.

Meanwhile, Western leaders dither and blabber with hollow phraseology that lacks tangible action. Worse yet, those Western elites insist on focusing more on the abstract fear of future climate instead of the tangible danger of present actors. The West fights with itself, where its once-proud institutions and values are systemically overturned and uprooted by our supposed leaders.

A 1989 Root Cause to What Ails the West in 2024

How did our elites and experts arrive at such a state of ineptitude? How did they not see this coming? And why do they continue to behave as paralyzed ninnies as troubling events unfold, one after another?

Thank a person few outside of elite foreign policy and political science circles have heard of: Francis Fukuyama. He is a noted geopolitical analyst, who has done it all in his field, from serving as an advisor to Muammar Gaddafi to being a thought leader for the US neoconservative movement.

In 1989, Fukuyama published his now famous essay, whose title was in the form of a question: “The End of History?” Fukuyama posited that the geopolitical fight between freedom and totalitarianism was over, that right prevailed over wrong, and that classic liberalism reigned supreme and unchallenged.

“The End of History?” influenced many a policy and leader through the years; it was fundamental to the thinking of everyone from Bush the Second to Obama to Kerry to whoever is running foreign policy in today’s White House.1 It was widely accepted as sage and the authority on how one should view geopolitics.

And that was quite unfortunate. Because the core premise of “The End of History?” has proven to be hogwash.

Contrasting the Expert Prediction and the Current Reality

Consider key excerpts from the influential 1989 paper and then contrast them with reality in early 2024. Doing so exposes the danger of Western elite arrogance, smugness, and overconfidence and their bad consequences.

The paper’s opening paragraph starts with a key sentence: “The past year has seen a flood of articles commemorating the end of the Cold War, and the fact that ‘peace’ seems to be breaking out in many regions of the world.”

What is breaking out across the world today? Iran developing nukes, Hamas manufacturing terror, North Korea firing missiles into international waters, Russia annihilating Ukraine, state-sponsored terrorists disrupting global shipping lanes, and China prowling Taiwan. Is that peace breaking out? Or more like the late 1930s when the Axis Powers were aligning and gearing up?

Fukuyama wrote of “ideological violence, as liberalism contended first with the remnants of absolutism, then bolshevism and fascism, and finally an updated Marxism that threatened to lead to the ultimate apocalypse of nuclear war. But the century that began full of self-confidence in the ultimate triumph of Western liberal democracy seems at its close to be returning full circle to where it started: not to an ‘end of ideology’ or a convergence between capitalism and socialism, as earlier predicted, but to an unabashed victory of economic and political liberalism.”

Do you feel that classic liberalism is alive, well, and winning—in Putin’s Russia or the Ayatollah’s Iran? Is the free market running on all cylinders in Xi’s China? To posit such today is laughable.

Fukuyama saw much of history and conflict stemming from a war between ideologies. Which is true. Then and now. But here’s what Fukuyama misjudged: he argued that the rival ideologies to republican democracy, the West, and capitalism were dead. Vanquished. Beaten.

Fascism and communism were supposedly wrecked and ruined. The first, fascism, was literally ruined by World War II bombs, both conventional and nuclear. And the latter, communism, was assumed to be destroyed by, for lack of a better term, Westernization and liberalization of places like China and Russia.

Fukuyama was dead wrong about communism and socialism being slain.

Once you assume the alternatives are gone, then it’s not a big leap to declare what Fukuyama proposed: that it’s the end of history, as we knew it. In his words: “That is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

That assessment was tragically mistaken. The Left might have been on the ropes in the late 1980s and 1990s, but it was far from the point of surrender. And now the Left and its ideologies have Western civilization on the brink and on the ropes.

If you seek perfect examples of how bold statements that might feel good to say then, or enjoy popularity then, can age incredibly poorly, consider these snippets from “The End of History?”:

“…the appeal of communism in the developed Western world, it is safe to say, is lower today than any time since the end of the First World War.”

It was not, and is not, safe to say that.

And: “…those who believe that the future must inevitably be socialist tend to be very old, or very marginal to the real political discourse of their societies.”

Fukuyama should visit an Ivy League campus these days and see what ideological vibe he picks up from students.

There is an interesting pair of sentences on China sitting in proximity in the essay: “…the past fifteen years have seen an almost total discrediting of Marxism-Leninism as an economic system.” And “But anyone familiar with the outlook and behavior of the new technocratic elite now governing China knows that Marxism and ideological principle have become virtually irrelevant as guides to policy, and that bourgeois consumerism has a real meaning in that country for the first time since the revolution.”

Fukuyama should’ve checked with Chairman Xi first. Marxism and the Left are the things that matter most in China today. By cold, calculating design of the elite there.

Epic Miscalculations of China and Russia

Fukuyama was all-in when it came to the once-popular Western elite view that China would simply Westernize itself once it saw how great of a system we had. That China would become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ among enlightened nations.

He wrote, “…the pull of the liberal idea continues to be very strong as economic power devolves and the economy becomes more open to the outside world. There are currently over 20,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S. and other Western countries, almost all of them the children of the Chinese elite. It is hard to believe that when they return home to run the country they will be content for China to be the only country in Asia unaffected by the larger democratizing trend.”

Too bad it was hard for Fukuyama to believe that. Or for Wall Street and DC. Or for Republican and Democratic presidents. They all believed it. And every one of them got it decisively wrong. It wasn’t until Trump, that threat-to-democracy despot, that the West started to wake up. Yes, the crude-angry-narcissist-megalomaniac of social media got right what all the experts got wrong, at least when it came to China.

It gets worse for the aging of China musings from “The End of History?”

Consider: “The central issue is the fact that the People’s Republic of China can no longer act as a beacon for illiberal forces around the world, whether they be guerrillas in some Asian jungle or middle class students in Paris. Maoism, rather than being the pattern for Asia’s future, became an anachronism, and it was the mainland Chinese who in fact were decisively influenced by the prosperity and dynamism of their overseas co-ethnics – the ironic ultimate victory of Taiwan.”

It is painful to read that in 2024, to where one feels embarrassed for Fukuyama. The CCP, the Left, and communism are beacons today for nations with the Belt and Road Initiative; they run the curriculum across Western higher education and elite academia; and they fund chaos when it benefits them, from Ukraine to Israel.

And Taiwan victory? It doesn’t even officially exist in corporate brochures and on foreign office maps. And it may not actually exist by year end, or whenever China decides to move on it.

On Russia, Fukuyama was just as bad with his predictions. He wrote that Russia was reforming and that it was moving toward a society where “…people should be truly responsible for their own affairs, that higher political bodies should be answerable to lower ones,…that the rule of law should prevail over arbitrary police actions…that there should be legal protection for property rights, the need for open discussion of public issues and the right of public dissent…and of a political culture that is more tolerant…”

Did Putin smile to himself or outright laugh when he read that? And be certain that Putin has read Fukuyama. As has Xi. The Left studies its enemies and is always probing for weakness.

Fukuyama took to task those who said the fall of the communist state USSR would lead to a more nationalistic Russia led by a strongman. He wrote: “The automatic assumption that Russia shorn of its expansionist communist ideology should pick up where the czars left off just prior to the Bolshevik Revolution is therefore a curious one.”

Not so curious now, just ask Ukraine and eastern Europe.

He had the same view with China not going aggressive. He proclaimed, “Chinese competitiveness and expansionism on the world scene have virtually disappeared: Beijing no longer sponsors Maoist insurgencies or tries to cultivate influence in distant African countries as it did in the 1960s.”

Proof positive that Deng Xiaoping’s mantra of ‘hide your strength and bide your time’ was effective in lulling Western elites like Fukuyama into a foreign policy coma.

The opening paragraph of the essay’s conclusion does a great job of summarizing the failure that is “The End of History?” and its apostles with China and Russia policy:

“The passing of Marxism-Leninism first from China and then from the Soviet Union will mean its death as a living ideology of world historical significance. For while there may be some isolated true believers left in places like Managua, Pyongyang, or Cambridge, Massachusetts, the fact that there is not a single large state in which it is a going concern undermines completely its pretensions to being in the vanguard of human history. And the death of this ideology means the growing ‘Common Marketization’ of international relations, and the diminution of the likelihood of large-scale conflict between states.”

Today’s darkening world serves as a decisive rebuke of Fukuyama.

What Filled the Supposed Vacuum in the West?

If the United States was truly a unipolar power and it was indeed the ‘end of history’, then something had to replace the old way in the West.

How we should behave in the end of history era was a big question. A vacuum needed to be filled. Ironically, the very ideology Fukuyama said was eradicated: communism, socialism, the Left, was what filled that vacuum of values in the West.

The Left superimposed its value system on the West once experts and elites like Fukuyama assured and convinced everyone that communism and socialism were dead. That China and Russia would surely start behaving like us.

What did the Left fill our culture and values with? Well, it is rigidly secular. To the point where it becomes not just ideology, but a new religion. Strangely, secular purity morphs into a religion. With true, ardent believers.

Some call it postmodernism. Its foundational pillars are evident with the big ideas and movements of today. Three stand out.

First, it manifests in the expert class demanding that the global/universal issue takes primacy over national/local issues. There is an ethical duty and responsibility to put yourself, your community, and your country behind and secondary to what is best for the public good or the planet or humankind. The select few decide what best serves the global/universal, of course.

This leads to things like unbalanced globalization and open borders. Consider the open border issue these days. Texas, of course. But also, Italy. And even, of all places, Finland, on its border with Russia. The Left use open borders as an effective divisive tool.

A second notable manifestation of the value system of the Left is a religious fervor on Code Red and climate change. Where the planet is in peril and we all must take a back seat with our interests and place in life to tackle climate change. Climate alarmism looms so large these days, touching everything, that it deserves to be placed as its own foundational pillar of the Left’s new ‘end of history’ toolkit.

The third manifestation is a cleansing. Not an ethnic cleansing, but a values cleansing. Orwellian in many ways. Wiping away, erasing, vilifying, and, yes, canceling the prior values of the West, of capitalism, of the individual and their rights, and of America. Ignoring science to the benefit of ideology. Replacing factual history with subjective fiction. There are many current examples; you know them well.

Hope?

The epic transformation that Fukuyama predicted was a complete misread. A historic blunder that influenced more historic blunders by those in power who believed it and set policy from it.

The good news is certain thought leaders are calling for a tipping point, where the skewed values that the Left injected into the vacuum created by the “End of History?” crowd are exposed and the West turns against them.2

Carry healthy skepticism about such predictions. Today the Left hasn’t just injected the new values into this ‘end of history’ time, the Left is also running all the wheels of power and influence in the West necessary to keep such ideology in place, fed, and protected.

Academia indoctrinates on behalf of the Left. Indoctrinated minions leave the campus quad and enter the halls of government and corporate America where they end up leading both and setting policy for the former. And many of those minions end up in what has become the ministry of propaganda for the Left: mainstream media.

Yes, have doubts about the tide turning now for the better. It may get worse for America before improving. And let’s hope that prediction ends up being as wrong as Fukuyama’s in 1989.

[1] One example of many: President Obama in 2013 while on a trip to Russia proclaiming an end to the Great Game and how nations now realize no one “benefits from that kind of great-power conflict.” Russia invaded Ukraine six months later.
[2] Gerard Baker of the WSJ is an exceptional thought-leader in this arena.

20 Reasons Why the Worst is Yet to Come with Inflation

The start of 2024 has brought a symphony of assurance from economic experts, the business media, Wall Street, Biden administration officials, and Fed leadership that inflation has been tamed and has run its recent short-lived course.

A range of economic metrics, excuses (what Milton Friedman once facetiously referenced as “special events”), and data are offered to bolster the premise and add an air of clinical objectivity.

Wishing something to be true does not make it so. Unfortunately, inflation has not been brought to heel and the opposite is true.

It’s not just one thing stoking inflation. Rather, there are three broad categories of individual contributing factors: government spending/regulation, monetary policy, and geopolitics. And specifically, there are twenty key contributors keeping inflation at elevated levels, and perhaps worsening it.

1. Unabated growth in the regulatory state makes everything more expensive. The administrative state is exponentially expanding at break-neck pace across all facets of the economy and across all industries. If you make, provide, sell, buy, use, or report something, the costs of compliance are growing at historic rates. Such costs inevitably will be passed down the supply chain, ultimately to consumers, in the price of goods and services.

2. Languishing worker productivity means more cost per unit of output. More constraints are being imposed upon worker efficiency and productivity. Remote work comes with an inevitable reduction of individual and team efficacies. New labor agreements come with hidden but onerous work rules, beyond wage rate hikes, that significantly impede productivity. Output per worker is declining, which will increase costs.

3. Generationally low worker participation rate creates skill scarcity. Worker participation rate has been declining for 25+ years. Pandemic made it worse, and it is projected to decline further in the coming years, to barely above 60%. The reasons are many, but lower participation manifests in lower economic productivity and higher costs.

4. Climate alarmism is making the kilowatt-hour expensive and scarce. Energy is a feedstock for everything used or provided in a modern economy. If electricity costs increase rapidly and electricity availability decreases severely, inflation is stoked. Climate change policies are designed to do both (along with forcing a heavier reliance on electrification).

5. Climate alarmism is making horsepower expensive and scarce. All commerce requires some level of transportation in its supply chain. The transportation sector is now state-controlled, where modes and rates are set by bureaucratic decree. Costs rise, productivity plummets (for a real-time example, look to California’s disastrous mandate of electric trucks) and choice declines; all feeding inflation.

6. Commodities will experience unprecedented demand levels that are impossible to supply and that will explode costs. Climate policies rear their inflationary heads once again, this time by mandating levels of wind, solar, batteries, and electric vehicles that require enormous quantities of lithium, copper, rare earths, nickel, aluminum, and cobalt. Quantities that cannot be commercially produced in any reasonable time frame, and that will manufacture tremendous inflationary pressures for each.

7. Hyper government spending creates private sector scarcity. The US federal government spends over $6 trillion a year, $2 trillion more than it takes in as revenue. That epic level of spending consumes vast resources in the economy, making everything more scarce and more expensive for the private sector to do its thing. Voracious government activity elevates inflation in the real economy, soup to nuts.

8. Entitlements grow wider and deeper, driving potentially productive components out of the economy and keeping them sidelined. Social programs have greatly expanded: Social Security, healthcare for all (Medicare and Medicaid), student debt forgiveness (and higher ed subsidization), universal income, unemployment benefits, ‘affordable’ housing, sanctuary cities and open borders, and so on. The scale and breadth swamp the economy with suboptimal government spending. Worse, the programs often discourage potentially productive contributors of the economy from participating, keeping them out (or pushing them out). None of this bodes well for controlling inflation.

9. Taxes are rising everywhere and for everything, and the tab will be passed on, through the stream of commerce. Government needs a stupendous level of new revenue to fund its ever-growing self. Existing taxes will rise, new taxes will be created, and some new taxes will parade around as something other than taxes. Across local municipalities, states, nations, and global bodies (hello UN, IMF, World Bank, etc.). For driving in cities (congestion pricing), sitting at events (stadium taxes), eating (restaurant taxes and surcharges), shopping online (digital taxes), turning the lights on (carbon taxes), owning a pet (dog license fees) and flushing the toilet (municipal sewer ‘fees’).

10. Crime and heightened security add costs to retail. Shoplifting and theft have become societal norms, from the ransacking of trains carrying packages to flash mobs stripping retailor shelves bare. Businesses are paralyzed with inaction, law enforcement is instructed to not pursue the criminals, and everyone accepts such behavior. Yet the consumer pays for the consequences, from the lost merchandise to the heightened security measures, with higher prices.

11. But before those goods can be swiped off the store shelves, state-sponsored terror is making global shipping of those goods riskier and costlier. Today’s global economy means even the simplest of products carry massive, complex cumulative supply chains behind them (the route from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 12,000 nautical miles and requires a month of sailing). Inevitably, links of that supply chain will rely on water transport, and water-borne commerce hasn’t been this risky since the Republic of Pirates. When a ship is attacked, sunk, diverted to a longer (but safer) route, or delayed, it will increase cost and feed inflation. Shipping also becomes much more expensive to insure and protect, which also boosts inflation.

12. War is breaking global supply chains and commerce flow. War has never been conducive to global supply chain efficiency, but today’s geopolitical heat map is especially devilish. Consider Iran as an example: western climate policies shutter domestic energy and create reliance on Iranian energy, which creates market volatility and higher prices for oil, which benefits Iranian revenues, which allows Iran to fund terrorism, which provides the backing for terrorists to attack nations and global shipping, which disrupts supply chains, which drives up prices and scarcity more. Viola, spiraling inflation. And such a dynamic doesn’t apply exclusively to the Mideast and oil. Same cycle for war in Ukraine with grain and a potential war in Taiwan with semiconductors.

13. Deglobalization of supply chains injects inefficiency and higher costs into the system. Today’s global supply chains came to be because of efficiencies and economic advantages (whether built fairly or unfairly) of each link. The evolution and optimization that took decades to evolve are now being broken, sometimes for good reasons and sometime for bad reasons. Nevertheless, breaking down globalization and replacing it with regional or national supply chains is going to necessarily result in higher cost, less choice, and greater inflation.

14. And the links in those supply chains are becoming dangerously thin and unreliable. Decades of just-in-time manufacturing optimization have been applied to every link in very long global supply chains, resulting in over $90 billion in annual cash flow savings for US firms alone. That has gone from strength to weakness with today’s geopolitical volatility and deglobalization shift. The once desirable is now brittle. When one link can’t deliver its piece of the puzzle just-in-time to the next link, the end-results are delayed delivery, higher cost, and inferior effectiveness: hallmarks of inflationary pressure.

15. Economic policy favors consolidating supply and markets into a small group of large entities, creating oligopoly power. The current policy, economic, and geopolitical environment benefits scale in firms and industries. Scale and concentration allow the few to dictate the supply and price of products to the market down the supply chain, ultimately impacting the price of everything from breakfast cereal to smart phones. Once higher prices are established, the oligopoly will be resistant to both new entrants and price discounting. Inflation appears, and once present, persists.

16. Speaking of market power, OPEC is back from the dead as OPEC+, bringing with it monopoly pricing power for oil. What capitalism and innovation slayed with the shale revolution, western climate policies resurrected with draconian prescriptions. Oil is once again controlled by the few, with most of the few being adverse to the US. Since oil is a necessary feedstock for countless products and services in a modern economy, higher prices for oil mean higher prices for everything, which means inflation.

17. The Federal Reserve, despite touting its independence, is quite susceptible to political pressure and may set rates too low. Fighting inflation at central banks is never a fun or popular endeavor, as monetary policy adjusted to a more disciplined path creates short term headwinds and hardships for stakeholders. Politicians worry most about…their popularity…and the short term. That makes for a head-on collision between political leader ‘wants’ and monetary policy ‘needs’ during inflationary times. Don’t be surprised if the Fed folds and acquiesces to the politically expedient when it comes to choosing between what is clinically needed and what avoids criticism/outcry. That could result in too-low interest rates (or cutting rates prematurely), effectively pouring gasoline on the already raging inflation bonfire. For more on the Fed in 2024, listen to The Far Middle episode 136, starting at approximately the 20-minute mark.

18. And the Left (who runs government these days) loves free money, which is an inflation accelerant. Whether it is under cover of impressive-sounding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) or just plain socialism, the Left sees free money and negative real interest rates as key tactics to reward the favored special interests at the expense of savers/value creators. The Fed buying Treasuries is another tactic utilized here to attempt to keep rates below market. Free money diverts capital flows into funding inefficient activities that crowd out more efficient endeavors. That’s a recipe for inflation.

19. But even with love of free money policies and an impressionable Fed, the cost of debt is inevitably increasing the cost of capital. The party is over for zero interest rates. The benchmark cost of debt set by central banks and the risk premiums above it are being reset toward more normal levels (although still nowhere near normal levels). Capital is still artificially cheap, but no longer free, and capital is the lifeblood of all economic activity. Thus, the products of all economic activity will reset to a higher cost level.

20. The confluence of the prior nineteen contributors creates an incremental, cumulative step-up of inflation. Although each of the prior factors will individually contribute to sustained and perhaps increasing inflation, all in combination will drive an incremental step-up of inflation. A cumulative effect that occurs when all these contributors manifest together.

If you doubt the list above, consider the past few years. Are you waiting longer for goods and services today? Have the costs of everything gone up or down? Has quality improved or degraded? Do you have more choice today or less?

And do you suppose the situation will improve or worsen from here?

No matter how bleak your prognosis view may be, there is still time to course correct. Fyodor Dostoyevsky wisely advised that, “To live without hope is to cease to live.” Let’s hope by advocating for actions that tame inflation so that we all may live better.

A Rational Thinker’s Guide to Climate Change and Related Policies – Video Series

Part One: Diagnosing the Problem and Issue

In Part One of the “A Rational Thinker’s Guide to Climate Change and Related Policies” trilogy, Nick argues that the most pressing issue of our time is the inept policies being pushed upon society by the climate alarmist movement. When it comes to climate, energy, and environmental policy, we need to get back to rational thought as to what we know and what math and science are telling us. Nick examines Earth’s historical sea level and temperature changes, puts carbon dioxide emissions in perspective, discusses the carbon footprint of renewable energy sources (as well as their energy density and ecological impact), and more.

Part Two: Consequences of the Experts’ Cures

The “Rational Thinker’s Guide” trilogy continues in part two as the conversation turns to “what the elites and the expert classes are forcing upon society and economies when it comes to the cures or the medicines to help us deal or cope with climate change,” explains Nick.

Topics in part two include:

  • The supply chain and manufacturing of wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles.
  • Higher energy costs fueling inflation.
  • The geopolitical ramifications of present climate policies.
  • The developing world’s need for reliable and affordable energy.

Part Three:Forces Driving Present Climate Policies

The “Rational Thinker’s Guide” trilogy concludes in part three as Nick discusses what’s driving present climate policies: “When you think them through, from a chemistry or a physics or a math or an economics perspective, they make absolutely no sense,” says Nick.

Nick examines two sets of stakeholders benefitting from today’s climate policies, one being external and the other internal.

Topics in part three include:

  • OPEC and Russia benefiting from the U.S. and the West’s energy policy.
  • Venezuela’s aggression toward Guyana.
  • China’s stranglehold on every imaginable supply chain component of wind, solar, EVs, and batteries.
  • By controlling the availability and cost of energy, individuals lose individual freedom and their own decision-making ability.

 

For daily insights and commentary from Nick Deiuliis, follow Nick on X at @NickDeiuliis and on LinkedIn.

Mission Impossible: Ranking the Top Ten John Hughes Films from the 1980s

By Nick Deiuliis

Sports have great dynasties: the Yankees of the 1950s, the Steelers of the 1970s, the Islanders of the 1980s, the Bulls of the 1990s, Tiger Woods during the 2000s, to name a few.

There are also dynasties in the motion picture industry. If you came of age in the 1980s (or the 1990s thanks to an older sibling), there’s a strong likelihood that John Hughes movies were a companion on your journey. Although you may not recognize his name nor face, you know his movies, from start to finish.

During the 1980s, only Steven Spielberg’s work rivaled the Hughes catalogue. John Hughes achieved a remarkable, dynastic run through the decade.

His career began writing for National Lampoon magazine. Then opportunity on the big screen came knocking.

Coming-of-age and comedy were his specialties. He was a master at capturing the culture of the ‘80s, teenage and family life, and the great American suburbs. Most of his movies took place in and around Chicago.

Acting careers were started and catapulted by Hughes films: Michael Keaton, Molly Ringwald, John Candy, Chevy Chase, Macauley Culkin, Mathew Broderick, and just about the entire Brat Pack (Emilio Estevez, Judd Nelson, Anthony Michael Hall, and Ally Sheedy). He was especially close to Candy and was devastated when the actor died.

Hughes could be prickly, and he abruptly broke off all contact with Molly Ringwald and Anthony Michael Hall after the mid-1980s. He became somewhat of a recluse in the ‘90s, and we lost Hughes to a heart attack in 2009 at a too-young age of 59. But his legacy endures with his memorable films.

The best way to summarize the allure of Hughes movies: if it’s a Saturday and you start surfing through channels to get to what you’re looking for and you come across one of his films, forget about what you were planning to do for the next hour or two.

Such an extensive body of work raises an intriguing question. If one applied a clinical and scientific (ok, not really) process to Hughes films from the 1980s, what would the top-ten look like?

Well, something like this:

Honorable mention: Mr. Mom (1983)

A movie that features Michael Keaton coming into his acting prime alongside 1980s movie icon Terri Garr has to garner at least an honorable mention. Yeah, the storyline stereotypes gender roles to where it comes across as thick-headed today. But it’s a solid, funny movie. Yet it doesn’t crack the top-ten, which is an ode to the depth of Hughes’ work. Favorite line: “You don’t feed a baby chili!” Hughes didn’t direct Mr. Mom, because he wanted to film in Chicago rather than LA.

#10: Uncle Buck (1989)

John Candy…loved that guy. And who didn’t love his character Uncle Buck? Smoked like a chimney, drinker, degenerate gambler, and cruising around Chicago in that beat-up tuna-boat of a car (a Mercury). Uncle Buck was warning us about the future of helicopter parenting and obsessing over kids’ achievements with: “I don’t think I want to know a six-year-old who isn’t a dreamer, or a sillyheart. And I sure don’t want to know one who takes their student career seriously.” Favorite scene: when Uncle Buck beats up the drunken clown (Pooter the Clown) hired for the kids’ party.

#9: Weird Science (1985)

Gary (Anthony Michael Hall) and Wyatt come up with the ultimate computer hack to turn the tables and put the outcasts in the driver’s seat. Hughes was quite a technology visionary, giving us a look into AI before anyone knew what it stood for. Bill Paxton delivers one of the greatest roles of the 1980s as evil, big brother Chet: “Feeling queasy? How about a nice greasy pork sandwich served in a dirty ashtray?” Kelly LeBrock garnered attention from the teenage male demographic. But it almost didn’t happen. LeBrock initially turned down her role so she could spend time with Sting in the south of France.

#8: Home Alone (1990)

The blockbuster that launched young Macauley Culkin. Yes, it was released just after the conclusion of the 1980s, but close enough to be considered as a 1980s-era movie. I suspect many will rank Home Alone higher. No doubt this is a great film, and one that multiple generations can watch together during holiday get-togethers. And it gave us one of the great Hughes lines of all-time with a black-and-white gangster film young Kevin was watching on the VCR in his Windy City suburban home: “Keep the change, ya filthy animal.” Do you recall where the McAllisters were flying off to when they forgot Kevin? Paris, France. Placing Home Alone in only the eight-spot might be controversial, but read on and decide what classic gets displaced if you were to move Home Alone up in the ranking.

#7: Pretty in Pink (1986)

Perhaps the most underrated cast of all the Hughes films. Molly Ringwald in the lead role, Jon Cryer (Duckie!), Andy McCarthy, James Spader, and don’t forget Henry Dean Stanton as the dad. Song-for-song, the best movie soundtrack of the 1980s this side of Purple Rain, with an alt-rock dream lineup of INXS, New Order, Echo and the Bunnymen, Joe Jackson, OMD, and The Psychedelic Furs. Duckie was a quote machine in this movie, with the best line being his response when Andie asked him what he wanted to drink: “Oh you know, beer, scotch, juice box… whatever.” Another Hughes film centered in the greater Chicago area (but filmed in LA).

#6: Planes, Trains and Automobiles (1987)

The Steve Martin and John Candy combo created comedic gold. One of the few Hughes films that doesn’t take place around Chicago (but the script centers on the journey to get to the final Turkey Day destination of…Chicago). Favorite scene: Del (John Candy) talking his way out of paying for breakfast in Wichita by going back and forth with the waitress about a human hair in the oatmeal. Del had a great life motto: “You know, the finest line a man will walk is between success at work and success at home. I got a motto – like your work, love your wife.” Del was a salesman; do you remember what he sold? Shower curtain rings. Great movie with a heart-tugging ending for Thanksgiving Day if your crew tires of football.

#5: National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation (1989)

Where do you even begin to break down this holiday masterpiece? The Griswold clan returns and comes close to besting the original effort. This installment of the family chronicles is dominated by Randy Quaid’s performance as Cousin Eddie. There are so many awesome one-liners in this epic that it is impossible to select a single best. I will go with when Cousin Eddie tells Clark his older boy couldn’t make it because he is “preparing for his career” in the carnival. Chevy Chase perfected the lovable loser in this film, with Clark in reflecting the worries and doubts of many middle-aged professionals back in the day.

#4: Sixteen Candles (1984)

Who didn’t love Chicago-area high schooler Samantha ‘Sam’ Baker? Big family, big upcoming wedding, and everyone forgets it’s her birthday. To top it off, she is constantly pestered by an annoying admirer (Ted) and loses her room to the visiting exchange student and her grandparents. But wait! Just when there appears to be no hope for Sam…Jake Ryan saves the day, riding in on his red Porsche (for you Jake Ryan fans, one can purchase a t-shirt of him in front of his Porshe with the words ‘yeah, you’ underneath). The iconic line of the movie is, of course, Sam with, “I Can’t Believe It. They…” (you can finish that line on your own). Many consider this movie to be Hughes’ finest. It’s up there, but not quite at the top.1

#3: National Lampoon’s Vacation (1983)

Magic. The screenplay was written by Hughes when he repurposed his short story, “Vacation ’58”, which appeared in National Lampoon. When Vacation hit big screens (and then appeared on a new, mysterious thing called cable and on an exotic platform known as HBO), it had the ability to make multiple generations of viewers laugh, but each at different scenes. Grandparents found one cut especially funny while their adult kids or younger grandkids were laughing at entirely different scenes.

That gorgeous, green, and wood-paneled Family Truckster should be considered part of the official cast (“50 yards”). The Christie Brinkley and Chevy Chase scene at the rest stop became cinematic legend, without a single word spoken by either actor. And who among us hasn’t quoted from this movie? My favorite is from that sage foodie, Cousin Eddie, with, “I don’t know why they call this stuff hamburger helper. It does just fine by itself.” Amen to that. And a close second is John Candy’s character delivering the bad news to the Griswolds with, “Sorry folks, the park’s closed. Moose out front should’ve told you.”

#2: Ferris Bueller’s Day Off (1986)

This absolute gem of a movie is in a class of its own. Exceptional character acting across the entire cast. Matt Broderick as Ferris is as good as it gets in this genre, from his dialogue to his demeanor; he came across as the King of Sophisticated Cool for suburban high school chic. And Mr. Rooney, played by Jeffrey Jones, was a superb comedy villain (I can still hear him saying, “Les Jeux Sont Faits. Translation: The Game Is Up. Your Ass Is Mine.”).

Alan Ruck was so convincing as a neurotic sidekick in his role of Cameron (who in the movie wore the jersey of Hughes’ favorite hockey player, Gordie Howe, despite the movie taking place not in Detroit but in the rival town, Chicago) that a trained psychologist would have trouble seeing through the acting. Don’t forget Jennifer Grey’s excellent performance as Ferris’ ill-intentioned sister. Another Hughes movie and another red sports car – this time a vintage Ferrari taken out on a joy ride by the parking garage attendants and then suffering a fate worse than one could imagine. This classic provided two all-time great quotes, a pair that tens of millions can instantly repeat on demand. First, Ben Stein as an econ teacher droning on with, “Bueller…? Bueller…? Bueller…?” And, of course, Ferris himself coming down the movie’s home stretch laying down a little life philosophy with, “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Back then most of us didn’t realize how true that was. But we get it now, Ferris.

#1: The Breakfast Club (1985)

Nothing, and I mean nothing, sums up what high school and coming of age were like more than this movie. The Breakfast Club is on some level relatable to just about anyone who matriculated through “The Lord of the Flies” world that we call high school. You knew that kid. You had that teacher. You felt that peer pressure. That girl was in your class. That’s your school. You…were…there. This is a movie about you, not fictional characters.

The subject matter scope is vast despite the movie taking place almost exclusively in an empty high school library on a Saturday. The Club starts detention as separate individuals with nothing in common, ends the day as united group, and walks away as individuals with better perspectives. Everything they thought they knew about high school going into the day of detention was upended by late afternoon. Judd Nelson’s performance as the delinquent Bender is excellent. So many quotes to choose from. The eccentric Allyson to the jock Andrew: “You do everything everyone tells you to, and that is the problem.” Disciplinarian Mr. Vernon, in that glorious suit, saying to Bender: “Don’t mess with the bull, young man. You’ll get the horns.” Claire lamenting, “I hate having to go along with everything my friends say.” And finally, Bender closing the movie out, reading from the Club’s assigned essay: “You see us as you want to see us, in the simplest terms with the most convenient definitions. But what we found out is that each one of us is a Brain…and an Athlete…and a Basket Case…a Princess…and a Criminal. Does that answer your question? Sincerely yours…The Breakfast Club.” Cue the Simple Minds.

Hughes and his films dominated the 1980s. Don’t you forget about him.

[1] Like scores of movies from the past, many of Hughes’ films have scenes that are objectionable today. It would be remiss to not specifically mention two disturbing aspects of 16 Candles. The first was the treatment of Jake Ryan’s intoxicated girlfriend and the aftermath. It came across as creepy back then and it comes across worse today. The second is the extreme stereotyping of the exchange student. It was cringeworthy then and more so today.

The Ten Greatest Live Rock Performances

By Nick Deiuliis

In the early 1950s, legendary disc jockey Alan Freed first used the phrase ‘rock and roll’ on his Cleveland radio show.  Rock was born.  We’ve been discussing and debating it ever since.

Rock music is a contradiction.

On one hand, it is a pasted-together mosaic of musical styles; blues, country, jazz, folk, pop, gospel, and even classical.  Old things presented in new ways. Not revolutionary as much as evolutionary.

On the other hand, rock is unique and stands apart from other music. Particularly when its energy is projected on stage when performed live.

Yes, the true essence of rock is best captured live, separating it from other musical styles. And sometimes a confluence of events captures a rock performance that stands the test of time and elevates beyond the norm of other musical genres.

I’ve often thought about, after viewing or experiencing a great live rock performance: where does it rank? And what would be the ten greatest exemplars of the live rock performance? Ten gems that hit a note above all the others?

Those questions would be great fun to assess. And irresistible to try to answer.

A Highly Unscientific Approach

Before we count down the ten greatest, here are our screening criteria:

  • We’re ranking single song performances only, not complete concerts.
  • Performance films are excluded. Apologies to Talking Heads (Stop Making Sense), The Band (The Last Waltz), and Prince (Sign O the Times).  All great viewing and performance, but more cinema than live rock.  That doesn’t mean a few of the Top Ten didn’t make it into a concert DVD, but these selections are live performance first, concert film second.
  • DJs and sampling electronic music are not considered. The performer must be playing instruments or singing, live.  Sorry, Daft Punk (’06 Coachella) and Fatboy Slim (’02 Brighton Beach).
  • Super Bowl halftime show performances are not considered. They are more entertainment spectacle than live rock performance.
  • No ‘unplugged’ renditions (forgive me Nirvana and Clapton fans). You know the setup: the performers sitting on stools, surrounded by a small TV studio audience. They’re interesting when done well.  But they are purposely toned down and constructed exclusively for TV/digital media broadcasting.

Special weighting and bonus points are awarded for the following:

  • Outstanding live performances that are not widely known or don’t garner enough attention.
  • A special historical context of when or where the song was performed. Having time and place convene to transform the performance into representing something bigger.
  • Adding a visual and theatrical element to the live performance. Taking the recording and presenting it with supplemental props live can create another level of song experience.
  • Enthusiastic audience participation. Thousands of strangers connecting organically during a live rendition is a sure sign that the performance has achieved greatness.  Which means heavy weighting toward European and South American venues; audiences there are order of magnitude more passionate than American audiences.
  • Amazing live musicianship. In the end, the music matters the most. Always has and always will.

Lest I forget, there is one critical requirement to make the list: a video capturing the specific performance must be readily available for viewing.  What’s the point of including a great performance in the ranking if one cannot easily check it out on YouTube?

To start, we have two honorable mentions, beginning with Veruca Salt, “Seether” (1995; Glastonbury, UK).  What ever happened to Veruca Salt?  They looked to be the next big thing back in the 1990s, but then the Chicago-based band fell off the radar.  Watch them play “Seether” at Glastonbury in ’95 to see what might have been if they kept it going. Funny how time flies, but most of those attendees in the crowd are now well into their 50s running businesses, governments, and maybe even grandkids to and from events.

Second honorable mention goes to Gary Numan with Nine Inch Nails, “Cars” (2009; London, UK).  Numan’s “Cars” was on the first album I owned (one of those K-Tel hits albums) and I’ve adored the new wave song ever since.  Check him out making a special appearance in his hometown to play it live with Trent Reznor and band at a Nine Inch Nails show.

Here We Go: The Ten Greatest

#10: Peter Gabriel (with Paula Cole), “Come Talk to Me” (Secret World Live; 1994; Modena, Italy)

As this list unfolds, it will betray a bias I have long suffered from: favoring concert openers.  There is something magical about the moment when the recorded soundtrack stops, they cut the arena lights, and the act takes the stage. Gabriel used “Come Talk to Me” from the Us album to open his Secret World Live tour in 1993-1994. Us was created at a time of personal turmoil for Gabriel, and this song’s lyrics address his relationship strain at the time with his daughter (after Gabriel moved out of the family home and began cohabitating with actor Rosanna Arquette).

Gabriel has a long history of putting together bands with top-notch musicians and making great use of props (including himself, which trails back to his Genesis days), both of which were on display for this performance.  Gabriel emerges from a phone booth, singing into a telephone, extending the cord as he tries to connect with Paula Cole, who performed the female vocals (Sinead O’Connor provided the vocals on the album track).  A refined, beautiful performance that is both musical and theatrical.  It’s high art.

#9: Megadeth, “Symphony of Destruction” (That One Night; 2005; Buenos Aires, Argentina)

I am not into the thrash metal genre; I lean more toward the Judas Priest/Iron Maiden persuasion when it comes to heavy metal.  But the long-sober Dave Mustaine has emerged as one of metal’s underappreciated thought leaders, and his band managed one of the most awesome displays of live audience participation in rock history when they performed “Symphony” in front of a mass of rabid Argentinians.  The chanting drowns out the guitar, no small feat when it’s a Megadeth show. Repeat after me: “Megadeth, Megadeth, aguante Megadeth!”  No wonder Argentina is Dave Mustaine’s favorite place to play.  If you want another exemplar of Argentinians’ flair for live concert participation, check out AC/DC at River Platte in 2009; “Thunderstruck” and “Whole Lotta Rosie” are epic.

#8: Stevie Ray Vaughan, “Couldn’t Stand the Weather” (Capitol Theater; 1985; Passaic, New Jersey).

The video of this performance essentially ignores the audience.  There are no stage props, other than SRV’s trademark hat, belt, boots, and guitar strap. And you miss none of it because it is impossible not to be transfixed on his playing and singing.  He’s in a performative trance; you could light him on fire, and he wouldn’t notice.

Vaughan is one of those true genius talents that stands out from all others; anything added alongside his live playing becomes wasteful distraction and dilution from the man and his guitar. I ranked Vaughan up there with Hendrix and EVH in the Top Ten Rock Guitarists of All-Time, and SRV may indeed have been the very best of them live.  Still can’t fathom how he simultaneously played guitar and sang like that on “Couldn’t Stand the Weather.”  One of my greatest musical regrets is not having the chance to see him work such magic live.

#7: U2, Intro / “Zoo Station” (Achtung Baby Tour; 1993; Adelaide, Australia).

I wasn’t going to construct a top ten live performance list and not include one of my favorite bands through the years (and another opening song).  I must admit being torn between one of two U2 performances to choose from, with the close runner-up being “Sunday Bloody Sunday” at Red Rocks, aka, ‘This is not a rebel song!’ But I must give the nod to the Dubliners’ early 1990s reinvention of their band and their reimagining the concert as a performance medium.

Achtung Baby was a huge creative and brand risk for U2.  They took the risk, and we reaped the reward. Then the band broke more ground by presenting the album tour as Zoo TV, an innovative digital and visual display to accompany the music.  Zoo TV managed to take the groundbreaking music of U2 found on Achtung Baby and present it in a revolutionary packaging that made it better. You hear the Disposable Heroes of Hiphoprisy’s “Television, The Drug of a Nation” being played, those massive stadium screens light up, Bono’s outline emerges from the stage, and then Edge hits the intro notes to “Zoo Station.”  Special.  Will U2’s current run of shows covering Achtung Baby at the Vegas Sphere measure up? Hope so.

#6: Metallica, “Enter Sandman” (Tushino Airfield Concert; 1991; Moscow, Russia)

Although not a rabid fan, I like Metallica and have seen them numerous times. When “Enter Sandman” first came out, it was bold and new.  And quickly became old and tired after endless radio play. But looking back, Metallica’s live performance of “Enter Sandman” outside Moscow in 1991 was mind-blowing for three reasons.

First, the size of the crowd was conservatively estimated to be somewhere in the 500,000 range (some estimates were as high as 1.6 million!). Second, that audience was pent up for too long under communism and was ready to explode when the band took the stage (another set opener, by the way; this one preceded with Metallica’s traditional playing of Ennio Morricone’s western movie score). Third, the festival (which also included AC/DC, The Black Crowes, and others) served as a symbolic tearing down of the USSR communist state and the start of a more open Russia.

The visuals of some Red Army troops participating in the crowd and other Red Army troops holding back the crowd were poignant.  James Hetfield’s lyrics of “exit light, enter night” reflected the reverse order of how Russians were feeling in 1991.  A band and song in the right place at the most historic of times. Unfortunately, a stark contrast to Russia today.

#5: Depeche Mode, “Never Let Me Down Again” (raw version: One Night in Paris; 2001; Paris, France or polished version: Tour of the Universe; 2009; Barcelona, Spain) 

I’ve enjoyed Depeche Mode for decades, but I always thought they were better in the studio and on record than they were live.  Until I saw them perform the classic “Never Let Me Down Again” toward the end of their shows.  That song has been a personal favorite from the Music for the Masses album and I consider it to be their best single.  The band performing it live further elevates the experience. You can see for yourself with two recommended versions: the Paris installment being rawer and more chaotic, or the Barcelona installment a few years later with a more polished rendition.

The song is a fan staple live for another reason: when the band extends the coda at the end of the number and Dave Gahan waves his arms in the air in unison with the audience.  It is one of the best live rock concert sights to behold, an experience that simply can’t be captured on record.

#4: Rush, Intro Medley / “Spirit of the Radio” (R30 Tour; 2004; Frankfurt, Germany)

Pound-for-pound, Rush is the most talented group in rock history, and that goes for their work in both studio and on stage. Hard to believe that three human beings could be so creative for so long.

Rush was incredibly prolific, sporting a song catalogue stretching over half a century.  So, it’s always tough for the band to construct a live setlist that checks all the boxes for all the fans.  One creative solution was when the band decided to open on the R30 tour with a video from comedian Jerry Stiller kicking off the band’s nearly seven-minute instrumental medley through a portfolio of their earlier masterpieces that included “Finding My Way”, “A Passage to Bangkok”, “Anthem”, and “Bastille Day”. Oh yeah, and then they launch right into a full rendition of “Spirit of the Radio”, the seminal Rush song.  Pure rock and roll heaven and, in my opinion, the best live opener ever.  Happy I was fortunate enough to experience it first-hand.

#3: Rolling Stones, “Sympathy for the Devil” (Altamont Speedway; 1969; Tracy, California)

People ask why I disdain the 1960s.  If I could point to one event to explain why, it would be the Rolling Stones performing “Sympathy for the Devil” at Altamont Speedway in late 1969.  Commentators often speak of it marking the end of 1960s culture.  Wrong; only the date of the performance was indicating the end of the 1960s.

Altamont marked the culmination of what 1960s culture wrought.  It wasn’t pretty. What would one expect when you combine drugged-out concertgoers, drugged-out performers, and drugged-out security attired in the vests of the Oakland chapter of the Hells Angels?

Jagger was assaulted by a fan before he even took the stage (he was lucky to be only punched in the head; earlier the lead singer for Jefferson Airplane was knocked out cold by ‘security’), “Sympathy for the Devil” was interrupted by violence in front of the stage, Jagger’s plea to “brothers and sisters” to calm down went unheeded, and a front row murder happened minutes later (during “Under My Thumb”).  This performance makes the list for its context of time (end of the 1960s), song (talk about lyrics fitting the moment), and history (peace-and-love generation being exposed as something quite the opposite).

#2: Black Sabbath, “Paranoid” (The End; 2017; Birmingham, UK)

For decades, music critics ignored and put down heavy metal. Which meant the pioneering work of Black Sabbath was demoted far too long. That changed with time, and in early 2017 the band wrapped up their final tour, where over its course one million people saw them perform.

The last show of the last tour was a curtain call in the industrial English city where it all began for the band: Birmingham.  Fittingly, the final song, as the encore, was “Paranoid”.  For this musical genre, it was akin to if the Beatles were to hold one last concert in Liverpool and end it with “I Want to Hold Your Hand.” How Ozzy manages to sing fluidly yet be unable to speak a sentence coherently remains one of life’s mysteries.

Another mystery is how Tony Iommi can play those riffs while missing parts of his fingers. But sing and play they did during the encore “Paranoid.” And the hometown crowd in Brimingham, spanning multiple generations of fans, appreciated every word and note. Underrated and underappreciated for far too long; but better the recognition comes late than never.

#1: Queen, “Radio Ga Ga” (Wembley Live Aid; 1985; London, UK)

This should not shock any rock fan. The historical context alone would place it at the top.

Perhaps the slight surprise is with the song selected from Queen’s Live Aid set, “Radio Ga Ga”.  It came right after the truncated version of Bohemian Rhapsody, after Freddie Mercury was comfortable with the setup and fans were focused on the band. And the audience engagement with “Radio Ga Ga” was off-the-charts phenomenal.

Mercury connected directly with every human being in that stadium, from the front row to the nosebleed seats.  And the audience connected right back. Prior to the show, Queen was asked if they agreed to play Live Aid to support the cause of fighting world hunger or because it was an epic event they couldn’t afford to miss.  Freddie replied, “To answer that honestly it’s a bit of both.” Is Freddie the greatest frontman in the history of rock? If not, he is damn close.

And on that day at Wembley, Mercury set the gold standard for live performance at the biggest of moments.  Oh, and if you want another great Wembley performance, check out INXS in 1991 with the intro to the Live Baby Live concert, “Guns in the Sky”; Michael Hutchence was special and no telling what he would’ve accomplished had he lived longer.

Well, there you have it.  An authoritative (not) objective (definitely not) top ten ranking of the greatest live performances in the history of rock.  Happy viewing.